Analysis: Mariners’ offensive woes continue, but hope is on the horizon

It’s hard to be patient. Seattle’s offense has been slow out of the gate too many times.

The fan base is uneasy to say the least. For the second straight season, the Seattle Mariners offense has struggled out of the gate, or at least has appeared to. With just 18 runs through seven games, the Mariner offense ranks tied at 26th with the Texas Rangers.

Is the offense really in the bottom third of the league, or can the slow start be attributed to unfortunate outcomes at the plate? The answer is a bit of both.

A big focus for Manager Dan Wilson’s team coming into this season was going the opposite way of the analytics, swapping home runs and strikeouts for high contact rate and fast guys.

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So far through seven games, the Mariners’ walk rate is 12.1%, second best in Major League Baseball through seven games.

The Mariners have put 141 balls in play, which is 23rd in the league. So far this season, the M’s have a .211 BABIP (batting average on balls in play). According to MLB, an average BABIP for an entire team is around .300. When the Mariners are putting the ball in play, good things just aren’t happening.

They are striking out a lot, and they are putting the ball in play, but just aren’t getting the desired results — runs.

The Mariners do have a problem with making contact.

The strikeout rate is high at 27.5%, tied with the Braves for seventh in the league. The Mariners have gotten the second fewest pitches in the strike zone this season (46.4%), and only the winless Atlanta Braves and New York Yankees seeing fewer. On top of that, Seattle has the highest whiff rate in all of baseball 34.8%.

According to Baseball Savant, the Mariners have the lowest contact rate on pitches in the strike zone at 72.2%. For reference, the Athletics have a 83.9% zone contact rate, which is fourth best in baseball.

There might be something to the high strikeout rate as the Mariners are a fairly aggressive ball club. The Mariners rank third in first pitch swing rate. Combining the high whiff rate and a low contact rate on pitches in the zone gives the Mariners a formula for strikeouts.

But Seattle is getting on base with walks and HBP, and when they do make contact, results have just varied. Through seven games, the Mariners are in the upper have of baseball when it comes to solid contact and barrels (9.2% barrel rate). So how do they start scoring runs in bulk?

They need to continue to have solid at-bats. Quite the take, I know, but it is important for fans to not freak out seeing a team batting average of .172 seven games into the season. The offense should turn around. They are taking their walks, and as a team they aren’t swinging at bag pitches, with their chase rate at 15th in baseball.

When they do make contact, they are finding enough barrels to do damage. In the series opener against Detroit in the 9-6 loss, the Mariners had eight batted balls at over 100 mph exit velocity compared to Detroit’s four. In the final game of that series against the reigning Cy Young Winner Tyrik Skubal, the Mariners had seven which only equated to three hits.

If the contact rate on pitches inside the zone increases by just a fraction, the offense should see the benefit of that, and more runs should come across.

It’s hard to be patient. The M’s offense has been slow out of the gate too many times as they have been 3-4 to start the season four out of the last five years. Especially when teams like the Yankees are hitting nine homers in a game. But as the adage goes, you have to trust the process. The process looks like it is working, but the fruits of their labor are just a bit behind it.

It’s easy to take aim at Jerry Dipoto and John Stanton in the Mariners’ front offices, but there are good numbers that show the offense is shaping up. But patience is running thin.

Ben Ray covers sports in Federal Way and South King County. Contact benjamin.ray@fedwaymirror.com.