There will be a lot of new people in charge of statewide offices in January as several incumbents are retiring or running for other jobs.

The Democrats appear well positioned to defend their incumbents and have a large pool of candidates for other positions.

Interestingly, Republican strategists have focused their attention on winning control of the big three: the state Senate, the House of Representatives, and the governor’s office. They also have good candidates for a few carefully selected statewide offices. In some cases, Republicans didn’t get candidates into the second-tier statewide races until late and may be willing to effectively let some races go to try and win the biggest prizes.

If you have both houses of the Legislature and the governor’s office, that’s pretty much the ballgame in Olympia. We’ll see if that gambit is successful.

I’m not suggesting who “should” advance out of the primaries. The voters get to decide that. Here are the early picks of who is “likely” to claim frontrunner status. We will cover other races in the weeks ahead.

Longtime Democratic incumbent Lt. Gov. Brad Owen will be hard to beat. Two Republicans will try. Former legislator Bill Finkbeiner will battle current House member Glenn Anderson to advance, but Owen is the frontrunner. Secretary of State Sam Reed has a strong field of candidates who want to succeed him. Reed, a Republican who is retiring, is backing Thurston County Auditor Kim Wyman. The auditor’s job is somewhat similar to the secretary of state’s job in overseeing elections. As the only “name” Republican, Wyman is the early leader. However, some Democrats would like to see a different vision brought to the office.

Former State Sen. Kathleen Drew from Olympia seems to have gathered the early momentum. Former Seattle Mayor Greg Nickels is well known in Democratic-dominated Seattle and could challenge, but it was Drew who got the endorsement at the Democratic convention. She has been working hard, but may have also benefited by being one of the few female candidates running statewide this year.

State Sen. Jim Kastama of Puyallup probably killed his chances of support from the rank-and-file Democrats when he joined two other Democratic Senators in voting for the Republican budget at the end of the legislative session. His reception at the convention was significantly less than warm or even tolerant.

Democratic State Auditor Brian Sonntag is stepping down, and this is a race that in the top-two format could yield two Democrats. Three well-known Democratic legislators — Senator Craig Pridemore from Vancouver, Rep. Mark Miloscia from Federal Way and Rep. Troy Kelley from Pierce County — are in the race. Republican candidate James Watkins has a lot of work to do to increase his name familiarity to match the others. He has the Republican side of the ledger to himself, which could get him into the finals if Democrats split their votes evenly.

Miloscia has auditing experience. Combined with his past record of attracting Republican crossover votes, Miloscia could take the second spot if he takes a big share of the Democratic vote in voter-rich King County and is able to take votes from Watkins. But the early frontrunner is Pridemore, who got the party convention endorsement.

Attorney General Rob McKenna is leaving to run for governor. Democratic King County Councilman Bob Ferguson will face Republican King County Councilman Reagan Dunn in November for the job. The only question here is whether Republican Stephen Pidgeon will take enough votes from Dunn to harm his campaign. While Pidgeon is really more interested in the gay marriage initiative, his participation makes Ferguson the frontrunner at this point. Both Ferguson and Dunn supported gay marriage when the issue came before the King County Council. Smart move on Dunn’s part, as it neutralized the issue in Seattle, but it may have played a role in Pidgeon getting into the race.

The primary is where the party faithful from each side turn out. The key as to who looks strong and who looks weak could rest with the independents. Looking strong now and in the primary is important because that determines where the special interest groups will put their money.

Unfortunately, as always, the three biggest needs in any political campaign are money, money and money.

Next week: U.S. Senate and the other statewide races.