With the legislative session coming to a close soon, all incumbents will be able to go home and start raising campaign money again. But as they began to close up shop there were some surprises, some non-surprises and some candidate rumors becoming reality.
The biggest non-surprise was that longtime Democratic Lt. Governor Brad Owen formally announced he was not going to run again. With incumbent Democratic state Sens. Karen Frasier and Cyrus Habib already in the race for many months, Owen’s announcement was expected. Democratic Sen. Steven Hobbs will also join the race. None of the three would have considered the race if they hadn’t expected Owen to step down.
Habib has raised the most money at $326,871 and is a freshman senator with high ambitions. Frasier hasn’t raised as much with $89,655, but with 27 years in politics he knows Olympia better than anyone in the field. Phillip Yin, with $66,856, has moved to the front in Republican fundraising.
With State Auditor Troy Kelley not running again due to legal problems, the big news of interest to Federal Way-area voters is Pierce County Executive Pat McCarthy joining the field of candidates to replace him. McCarthy is term limited in Pierce County and will leave the Executive’s office in January. She is well-known and has been highly visible on the regional stage for many years. Local state Sen. Mark Miloscia has been running for many months, but like other state officeholders has been unable to raise money while the legislature is in session. His total remains at the pre-session level of about $41,000. Seattle Democrat Jeff Sprung, who is not in the legislature, has continued to raise money and has seen his pre-session total of $34,775 jump to $138,360. McCarthy may be the best known of the serious contenders, but she’ll face questions about how she can make up for lost time in fundraising and endorsements.
Despite being limited by the legislative freeze on fundraising, Democratic Gov. Jay Inslee still holds a commanding lead in fundraising with $4 million to Republican Bill Bryant’s $1 million. Bryant has used the time to his advantage by traveling to every place he might find a voter. Inslee needs to protect his base in King, Pierce and Snohomish counties by urging a big voter turnout among the party faithful, both for himself and also for legislative candidates. He needs a Democratic legislature come next January to make progress on Democratic issues. He also needs to assess the damage among independent voters after the session’s political battles over corrections, transportation and education.
The bigger problem for Inslee could be if State Superintendent of Schools Randy Dorn decides to run for governor as an Independent. Dorn’s current position is non-partisan, but he served in the legislature as a Democrat.
Dorn has always been a little unpredictable. He criticized both parties for not supporting education, but he made a show of walking out on Inslee’s State of the State address to open the legislative session. He has maintained close relationships with some Republican leaders. If Dorn did get in the race he would be unlikely to win or advance to the general election, but he could still hurt Inslee by taking education votes and making Inslee look weaker, thereby enhancing Bryant’s chances.
Looking nationally, there is considerable concern in Republican circles about down-ballot candidates if Donald Trump heads the national ticket. The fear is that his continued alienation of voter blocs will pull down the entire ticket. If Trump is the Republican nominee, watch to see how many local candidates endorse him versus those that stay silent. Also check to see what part of the state they’re from.
On the other side, Democrats don’t have the same worry with either Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders as the Republicans do about Trump. That’s because Trump is also the Democrats’ concern, as he might appeal to blue-collar Caucasians who usually vote in the Democratic column, or he could bring a whole new set of voters who may become more unpredictable the further down the ballot they go. Watch to see how many new voters register.
Back here on the home ground, expect two new political announcements: Democrat Sharry Edwards, who just announced she’ll run for one of Federal Way’s state house seats, and a Republican who has yet to formally announce.
Federal Way resident Bob Roegner is a former mayor of Auburn: bjroegner@comcast.net
