As always, I have sought out the best advice possible to make my annual predictions of the winners in the key political races.
However, since I’m too cheap to pay professionals, my experts this year were two guys standing on a corner with brown paper bags. I also asked for political guidance from Mr. Federal Way, however, he told me to mind my own business.
The biggest unknown in any election is always turnout. At the beginning, Republicans seemed more energized to vote, but more people vote Democratic than Republican, so it isn’t just about getting your base voters to vote but more about getting independents that lean your way to also remember to cast their ballots. Who will do the best job of getting out the vote?
It appears that all incumbent congressional representatives in this state will be re-elected. The open position in Yakima, with Doc Hastings’s retirement, has Dan Newhouse and Clint Didier as the finalists. Both are Republicans. Newhouse is more moderate than Tea Party-leaning Didier and will get enough Republican votes, combined with Democratic votes to win the election. Nationally, the Republicans will retain control of the House of Representatives and it looks like they could take the Senate as well.
Closer to home there are several key Senate races that will decide control of the upper House. One of those is right here in Federal Way in the 30th District. In a hard fought battle, Republican Mark Miloscia seems like the winner over Democrat Shari Song. The race turned into allegations of carpetbagging against Song and charges of opposition to women’s rights against Miloscia.
In other key Senate races, the Democrats would like to defeat one of their own because conservative Democrat Tim Sheldon in Mason County caucuses with the Republicans. He is being challenged by fellow Democrat, Irene Bowling, who led coming out of the primary.
However, crossover Republican voters are likely to give Sheldon the victory. Senators Doug Erickson, R-Ferndale; Steve O’Ban, R-Tacoma; and Andy Hill, R-Redmond, all have been challenged by good Democratic candidates but seem likely to win re-election and keep the Republicans in control of the state Senate by a close margin. Another local race of interest is next door to the east in the 47th District, where incumbent Republican Senator and current floor leader Joe Fain appears headed to victory.
Next door to the north in the 33rd District, Democratic Senator Karen Keiser will be re-elected. One of the most exciting, controversial and unusual races ever is taking place for the Senate seat in the 31st where long-time lightning-rod incumbent Republican Senator Pam Roach is in the fight of her career against Republican house member Cathy Dahlquist. After almost 30 years in office, and past comebacks against long odds, this may be the time the combative Roach finally loses. Dahlquist should get enough crossover Democratic votes along with moderate Republican votes to score the upset.
The House of Representatives also has some interesting races this year.
The two incumbent House members in the 47th District, Democrat Pat Sullivan and Republican Mark Hargrove are likely to win re-election. Sullivan is one of the leaders in the House and it was a surprise that his primary numbers were closer than expected.
In the 30th District House races here in Federal Way, Republican incumbent Linda Kochmar appears headed for a comfortable win over first-time candidate Greg Baruso, a Democrat. The other race between the late Democratic incumbent Roger Freeman and Republican challenger Jack Dovey has been the closest local race since election season started. But it has only been in the last few weeks that the race has become controversial. Dovey’s business practices and Freeman’s health became big issues. While close, my prediction was that Freeman would win. His passing on Wednesday throws the race into question, although he could still win, as many voters have already cast their ballots. If Freeman wins, his seat would be filled by appointment from a list of candidates provided by the local democratic organization.
In the 33rd District, incumbent Democratic House members Tina Orwall and Mia Gregerson should win reelection.
Democrats will retain control of the state House, and with a split Legislature, Gov. Jay Inslee’s job will continue to be difficult.
The battle over guns, Initiative 594, which would add background checks to sales and transfers of guns at gun shows and between individuals, has led in polling throughout the election. Gun rights activists favor Initiative 591, which would undermine I-594. They recently changed their strategy from trying to defeat I-594 to just trying to pass I-591. If both pass, the issue goes to the Supreme Court where they think they have a better chance of winning than with the voters.
You have heard the speeches, seen the hit pieces, looked at your mail and read the newspaper. Now it’s up to you.
Federal Way resident Bob Roegner is the former Auburn mayor: bjroegner@comcast.net.
