The end of the 2009 state legislative session is in sight.

Barring something unforeseen, they will adjourn April 26. The last month will really tell what this session of the Legislature accomplished as most everything gets done at the last second and revolves around the budget. In January, a $6 billion shortfall was projected for 2009-2011. Now, it’s closer to $9 billion.

The Democrats’ goal entering the session was to keep their members in line by avoiding internal spats, pass a budget and get out of town with minimum political damage heading into 2010, which is an election year.

So far, not so good. By any stretch of the imagination, it has not been a fun session. The budget issues are causing a lot of friction between the Democratic-controlled Legislature and most of their core supporters. Educators, state employees and social service providers are upset about all the cuts that will adversely affect their ability to teach or take care of those in need.

That, in turn, has caused more tension among the Democrats themselves. Some members, feeling the cuts might just be too deep, have openly discussed the possibility of tax increases — including an income tax.

Politically speaking, that’s the last thing Democratic leadership wants discussed. While raising taxes might please their base of supporters, the general public is opposed, and it could cost incumbents in swing districts their jobs. In the end, Democratic leaders will say “no” and the budget will not contain any new taxes. The budget will be almost draconian in its cuts, but will allow the Democrats to politically defend themselves as acting responsibly in difficult economic times. However, to try and restore some of the cuts, particularly to education, they will send a tax package to the public for a vote — probably a “temporary” sales tax increase, which would put King County at about 10 percent. That’s a tough sell.

There has also been discussion about a second public vote for capital school projects. But putting two tax proposals up may be too much for the public to accept. The Legislature is also likely to give King County the ability to raise its own taxes. Most of that money would go to the prosecutor and sheriff and transit. Of course, it then puts incumbent King County Council members and candidates for King County Executive on the hot seat during an election year by having them vote for tax increases. Also, it appears at least two legislators are considering entering the Executive race, which adds an interesting subplot.

Republicans, on the other hand, have had a pretty easy session. They are few in number and have very little power. In their role as the “loyal opposition,” they keep saying “no new taxes.” They also keep reminding the Democrats that some of the reason for the budget shortfall is that Democrats obligated too much money in the good times. Republicans view this session as a stepping stone back to power. The 2010 session will be short and not much will happen because everyone will want to get home to campaign. That makes scoring political points this year crucial.

But as long as the Democrats leave Olympia with a “no new taxes” budget, the Republicans won’t score as many points as they had hoped.

The last three weeks of the session will determine how the public remembers who gets credit or blame.